Monday, April 14, 2014

Key Messages from the IPCC Working Group III Report

Here are some of the emerging key messages from the IPCC WG III report. You can download the Summary for Policymakers. The full report should be available tomorrow.
  • Emissions grew faster than ever since 2000.

  • Most of the growth is coming from middle income countries like China and India. Per capita emissions are still low in most developing countries, meaning a lot more growth in emissions can be expected under business as usual.

  • We need a broad portfolio of solutions to solve the problem including renewables, carbon capture and storage, carbon dioxide removal, and energy efficiency. There is no silver bullet.

  • Already delay is meaning that it is getting harder to stay within the 2 degree limit.

  • Estimated costs of meeting this goal are still relatively low GDP would be 2-6% by 2050 than it otherwise would be. Because GDP per capita would likely double globally by 2050 this means the doubling is delayed by 1-3 years or growth is 0.005% to 0.017% lower per year than it would otherwise be in the interim.

  • On the other hand, the lower estimates of costs depend on untested technologies at realistic scales to capture carbon from burning fossil fuels or to remove it directly from the atmosphere.

  • There is an increased recognition of the problems of integrating renewables into energy supply systems. Costs of energy storage or backup will be crucial.

  • Countries such as China are focusing heavily on the co-benefits of reducing emissions, including reducing local air pollution and improving energy security.

No comments:

Post a Comment